Dennis Riedel

Poker and the Social Sciences

October 21st, 2009

A scribble.

Nuclear Proliferation and the necessity for escalation. How imperfect information forces check-raising to help decision-making and is confused by the “slowplaying” opponent.

In an actual political scenario the US-led NATO states stand against Iran, which is partly supported by Russia and China regarding nuclear and military technology support.

Check-raising or escalation can take the following forms:

  • Economic sanctions
  • Deployment of military forces and equipment in nearby locations
  • Military joint exercises to demonstrate capability

After execution it looks for distinct reactions to gather additional information. Or to force the opponent to fold. But he might just call.

So Iran is “slowplaying“. As Sklansky defines it: “When you slowplay a hand, you are using deception to keep people in for a while in order to make your move in a later round.”

If Iran is really up to build and deploy nuclear warheads, all it needs is time. A softer scenario is the plan to gain influence in the Middle-East and to be recognized as the central power in the region.

Bluffing is not an option as for both sides is too much at stake (geo-political influence). But it does not seem that one of both sides has a weak hand anyway.

The outcome of a showdown.
When Iran would have to present their “hand” it could become clear that they do not have any functional nuclear weapon, neither bought nor facilitated. This would put a bad light on the US and its NATO allies. A winning hand for Iran.

On the other side it might actually mean war, as Israel would not accept any nuclear capability of Iran to persist long enough to become a thread to its existence. For a US-led NATO coalition that would mean war, too, as the US will have to stand by the side of Israel.

This is actually a bad outcome on either result and not desirable. So why play at all?
As in the movie from 1983, “War Games”: “A defense department computer, after repeatedly playing tic-tac-toe, discovers grim trigger strategies and concludes that nuclear war is a ‘strange game – the only winning move is not to play.’”

Game Theory Strategy: Minimax. “Minimizing the maximum possible loss”: Nuclear War.

Looking for an optimal strategy of countermeasures against a possible launch of multiple ICBMs of which some might contain nuclear warheads and the rest are just feints, bluffs.

Poker and Business (2)

October 19th, 2009

Entrepreneurship

“In poker the best players in the world are constantly assessing the gut feel, the players table image (brand), their betting patterns (negotiations), the odds and probabilities (the risk and reward), and their own cards (the business and the industry) in order to make decisions that have a greater that 50% chance of being profitable in the long run.”
Mark Bernberg,
http://thepokerroom.co.za

The business plan. Defining a long term strategy, how to handle uncertainty and manage the bankroll. How to grow your business. Every new start up business faces a certain amount of risk which needs to be handled skillfully. We have to look from different perspectives on our business idea and evaluate the information gathered from these. From where we stand we observe our market, surroundings and competition and additionally gather information. Finally, we formulate a decision which will have a positive long term effect.

Imperfect Information
As we will never have all the information needed, our decision making on imperfect information is risky. But we try to be it a calculated risk, with not too much investment that does not pay enough or would cost us our business on failure.
But as your image is very important for the long term perspective, you should be ready to invest time and effort to take evasive actions and to correct failures. Imperfect information creates imperfect decisions. Be prepared for it and fake it if necessary.

So our image or brand and how it is perceived plays a big role in your ability to negotiate successfully. With a strong image, brand or personality, it is easier to negotiate even on tough issues, because the trust and sympathy your image has created will help us.
If we have a weak image, we might not get even the chance to negotiate again, but the client leaves directly and contacts to competition.

In poker this might be problematic if we are perceived as very tight. If we play only strong hands or raise too aggressively, we will frighten away our opponents and they will not buy in and raise the pot size.

To get the most out of our business and in poker, we need our potential customers and opponents to buy in to our “hand”, in to what we have to offer. We have to sale our hand first by positioning ourselves and later negotiate with the remaining parties to make the highest possible profit.

The problem here is that poker is a zero sum game and that our opponent will loose, but our customer at least will receive something in return, that should have nearly the same value as the money he gave me. Otherwise he will not come back and we loose in the long term.

Over the turn of an evening/night at the poker table, the negotiation and treatment of the opponents might play a role. We may not want to beat on them hard early in the game, but create a nice atmosphere and relation early, create the right image for our selfes, so that they will not only once, but twice buy in to our hands at later stages of the game to make to most profit.
In online poker this attitude may not count that much, especially in the overcrowded and fast changing low stakes landscape, where players come and go. Here we do not get much out of a “long term relationship”, but better take the chance when it occurs to beat the opponent on sight and get his money before he decides to switch the table or another shark gets the chance to do so.

It is quite common in new businesses to sign Non-Disclosure-Agreements when working with partners, hiring employees or giving work to contractors. Nobody wants to reveal all information about their business so that something can get through to the competition. “Industry espionage” is a term that is used when employees are hired by competitors to give them information about company internal developments and communication.

Nobody wants to reveal their full “hand” and by controlling the flow of information an environment of imperfect information is created.

Reading people
When working with potential or existing customers, it is important to understand their interests and reasoning, what are they looking for, what do they need or what are they up to. Learning about their character is important for the relationship to be able to handle different types of situations in a manner that suits them, e.g. how to handle and communicate errors and problems. We cannot treat all of them the same if we are up to deliver quality support and assistance or personalized services and products.

The poker player might not play his hand the same against all opponents at the table. He must take into consideration the history and therefore insights about that person. Betting patterns can reveal the hand of an opponent and give valuable information to compare the personal hand against it.

To know that a player gives in at a certain amount of bet, can allow for some extra earnings despite a weak hand, played carefully, but calculated.

We do not see our customers as opponents, but rather people we want to have a fruitful relationship with. As there is no win-win situation in poker (zero sum game) the actual outcomes of different strategies might not be suitable for business in relation to customers (more likely for our competition) but what forms part of the information gathering process is important in business as well: reading people.

To have a long term relationship with a client and to animate him to bring more and more money to us over time, we need to be able to read the needs of them and adapt our service or product to their needs. In IT for example it is mostly all about cutting costs. If we have a product that is able to cut the costs at the client side continually over its life cycle, we create a huge value for the client which he is willing to pay for (he actually wants to pay certain amounts to save even bigger amounts).

This is also true for the employees in our company. We want them to buy in to our company strategy and mission. We want them to be engaged in what they do. Therefore we have to be able to read their intentions and needs, to motivate them so we can drive productivity from them. Employees who want to learn and develop themselves throughout their work will get frustrated in an environment that does not challenge them and only presents dull and repetitive work every day. Although this work might be important to the client, over time quality will go down and frustration on both sides will be the outcome.

Entrepreneurs, although they may have a thorough business plan and a optimal strategy, will go through hard times. They have to face challenges with the right attitude as they loose key employees and partners, an important client and wait for bills to be payed over months.

In comparison to the poker player, the entrepreneur will not go all the way alone as he will have partners, employees and a network of peers interested in the same domain.

A poker player can and will network with others to exchange experiences and discuss strategies. But in the action itself he is on his own. At the table only he and his decisions count. He has nobody else to blame as himself, but on the other hand does not have to rely on anybody else.

Additional remarks from Tony Hsieh, Zappos CEO:
Strategy. Figure out the game when stakes are not high. Do not enter the market vs. Walmart, for example. Be flexible, adapt to the dynamics of the game.

Continual Learning. Educate yourself, learn with and from others. Learn by doing.

Culture. You have to love the game to become really good. Have fun. Look out for opportunities.

Poker and Business

October 13th, 2009

This week we talk about poker and business. We therefore collect and comment sources that relate poker and some form of business. The author found materials mainly from investment people which are quotated in the following.

Investment – a game of incomplete information

Walter Pierson: “ain´t only three things to gamblin’: knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management, and knowing yourself.”

“Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition” means that you should know your odds. In poker this depends on the actual hand or draw which will have an influence on your decision to whether stay in or to get out. Regarding the odds there is then a comparable decision making process in investment where the pros and cons have to be evaluated; mainly by numbers, the odds.

Money management is important for financial decisions. Asking your financial personal advisor he will recommend you to spread your money over different investments, some classic and secure, some more risky but profitable, the one part in energy and resources, the other in research and technology. This should help to prevent big losses.

The poker player manages his bankroll in a way the also prevents him from big losses. His account is big enough to be prepared against a bad beat, loosing streaks and bad days. He will never enter the table with too much of his money to avoid huge losses and leave at a certain time when the winnings are high enough to avoid loosing them or starting to be “generous” by playing loose.

Therefore personality plays a big role:
David Nelson: “… skill sets for poker and investing are surprisingly similar.”
“… playing poker and the process of investing are more about how you make decisions.”
“In poker and in investing, ‘hope’ can be a very expensive word.”

David Nelson: “You can save a lot of money in poker and in investing if you know when to say adios. But the thing that works against us is that people want to hope and they hate taking losses. They are willing to seek risk to avoid losses.”

In poker it happens that players, after loosing an amount of money after going “All-in”, that they charge their account with the same amount again and try to gain back their previous loss.

You will start to look more for the short outcome of your play, trying to make money as fast as possible and trying to play hands which conflict with the 60/40 rule. You start to hope that the flop, turn or river will give you the hand you need to win or just that the others hand is not that strong as he might play it.

The same may be true for investment that, when loosing an amount of money, someone feels urged to gain back the money by hastily investing more money without a thorough decision making process.
Poker is all about decisions. Warren Buffett wrote, “As they say in poker, ‘if you’ve been in the game 30 minutes and you don’t know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy!’”

David Nelson:
“Now the key to winning in low stakes poker is folding. If you’re playing an eight-handed game and the luck of the draw is evenly distributed, you’re going to have the best hand about one in eight times. So seven out of eight times, if you’re playing only your good hands, you should be sitting on the sidelines. People don’t do that. When you play once a month or every couple of weeks, people want to mix it up. They want to be in the hands and get the action and see what the next card will bring. So they will not fold to the extent that you need to because it’s no fun and it requires discipline and patience. You can see where I’m starting to head in comparing investing with poker. Successful investing is boring. It takes place over years of time and involves accumulations of wealth in periods of years and decades as opposed to minutes, hours and weeks. If you’re at the country club and you’re talking about the latest stock you bought, most people want to talk about the thing that went up $10 the last week. They don’t want to say, “I’m in a mutual fund and I think I’ll make 7%-8% annually until I retire and at that rate I’ll be able to achieve my financial goals.” But that’s the way you really should be thinking about investing-over a lifetime.”

http://money.cnn.com/2005/04/27/pf/poker_0505/index.htm

http://www.leggmason.com/billmiller/conference/illustrations/nelson.asp

Bill Miller from Legg Mason uses Kelly criterion (Kelly strategy or Kelly bet). Kelly criterion is part of mainstream investment theory.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Poker and Entrepreneurship
Table and seat selection. You want to look for a fragmented market with a lot of different companies, holding not more than a one digit percentage of that market. Bigger and more established companies are there for a reason (success and professionality).
In poker you look for a table with a lot of fish (inexperienced beginners and loose gamblers).

Poker is a Zero-Sum Game
Robert Stewert: “Participants who win are exactly matched dollar for dollar by those who lose. (…) In the free market, unless you serve the consumer at least as well as your competitor, you will end up broke—this is known as creative destruction. In poker, unless you are consistently better than your rivals over a five-hour period, you will end up the same way.”

This “the winner takes it all” scenario is not really true for our actual market environment as we have different systems which somehow compensate the losers (social security, bailouts, etc.). That is why Robert Stewert elaborates on a free market (economy) scenario.

Imperfect knowledge
Robert Stewert: “In a free economy information is not free and is difficult to acquire. Government regulators, for example, always like to speak about uniform standards and processes, (…) What is needed is not uniform or standardized behavior but unpredictable behavior. (…) Predictable security standards at airports assure that some criminal will do the unexpected. So will those who are regulated, as the 2008 subprime financial crisis indicated. I’ll bet my house that it was a poker player who came up with structured investment vehicles, which were developed to get around regulators.”

http://www.thefreemanonline.org/featured/poker-and-the-free-market/

Heads Up Poker – Find an exploitive strategy

October 7th, 2009

Assignement: “Pair up and play 500 hands with your partner. Think about an exploitive strategy to beat your opponent.”

My profile: Novice. My knowledge of game theory and poker theory: Beginner.
Therefore my strategy: Read what others recommend and “no strategy”, just watch and adapt.

Does that sound exploitive? Not really, but I decided on the following more or less:

Always call with Q-7 or better to see flop, play aggressive with two face cards from any position. The following read animated me to do that:
“In heads-up poker games the rank (or strength) of starting hands change when compared to a 6 or 10 table game. This is due to the decreased likelihood that you are facing an opponent with a hand which dominates yours (is a 70% or more favorite against you).”

This actually led me to call from dealer position to see the flop when having 7-8, 8-9, 9-10.

Check raising: raise with a strong or middle hand pre-flop to get information on the strength of my opponents hand. Fold on a bad outcome on the flop.

Steal blinds: on BB re-raise and raise to the dealer pre-flop with strong and middle hands.

Low or high in stakes: more conservative. But when low and BB sucking me out: Aggressive, especially from BB.

Bluffing failed when done early, went better on turn or river from Dealer position.

Sometimes I paid by calling to see the hand of my opponent to derive from it his style of play.

The end result 4:6 in favor of my opponent.

Sources:
http://www.heads-up-poker.org/basic-heads-up-poker-strategy.htm and listed articles

http://www.sitandgoplanet.com/multitable/mtt_strategy/Poker_Game_Theory.html

http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer-magazines/65572-18-18/articles/14980-game-theory-and-poker-an-introduction

http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~jonathan/Grad/Papers/ai98.poker.html

Poker Is Good For You – Approaching Strategic Thinking

September 29th, 2009

Last week we elaborated on the different ways to proof that poker is rather a game of skill than chance. This weeks assignment takes the argument away from the search of a proof that stands in court and politics, to a wider range of personal qualitites and skills gained by the individual who follows along a poker career path. These are discussed by David Sklansky and Alan N. Schoonmaker in their paper “Poker Is Good For You“.

Sklansky and Schoonmaker have created a long list of points which they relate to (US American) everyday life scenarios to show how these learned qualities and skills may help an individual to make a better living in economic, social and personal situations.
For today’s essay we want to take their findings and relate them to six aspects (parts) of poker to elaborate how they foster a certain learning experience.

While reading the paper and relating each argument to one of the six parts of poker (position, aggression, chips, multi-level-thinking, tells and reads, bankroll management) we already saw that a certain argument fits into more than one aspect of poker. We will therefore structure the document using the six identified parts and elaborate for each of them about the relation to one or more of the 24 characteristics and skills. The related skills for “chips” are also included in “bankroll management” and so the author decided to elaborate on these below a unique aspect.

We want to mention that the author is only familiar with the game Texas Hold’em and therefore his examples will relate to this type of game. If the same is true to other types of poker is seen as possible. As the author also has no experience in real money games, later assumptions on this area are derived from reading other people´s suggestions and tips.

Position
The player’s position at the poker table may seem unimportant to the unfamiliar spectator or player in the beginning, but will show its importance sooner or later in the game. In a bigger round of 6 and more players one can easily group them into the three positions they find themselves in: early position, middle position, late position. Starting with the player left from the dealer or “button” starts the early position with “small” and “big blind”. Left from the big blind starts the middle position and after it the last position ending with the dealer. With whom the middle position starts and ends depends on the size of the table actually, but at a table with nine players we can separate them into groups of three easily.
The first round before the flop (“pre-flop”) then starts with the player after the big blind as all players have to “buy-in” themselves before they are allowed to play the actual hand. When all players have called, checked or folded (possible betting before might have occurred) the flop is shown and the new round starts with the small blind, the player on the left hand of the dealer.

Visualizing this scenario it becomes quite clear how the names for the positions are derived. The dealer and the player(s) on the right hand to him are the latest who are called to action. In the pre-flop and after flop they can observe their opponents and gather information from their actions before they have to act. Especially after the flop it is important to observe the opponents and their reaction to the flop. Information is key in poker and as we cannot watch into the cards of our opponents (we suppose), we take advantage of our position to “read” our opponents.

Entering decision making in our lives we easily see the relationship. We have to make decisions in conferences, negotiations, our work, personal life and the relationship with others. Information is key, as we want to have enough of it to make a sound and positive (profitable) decision. Before entering or acting in a market a company might find itself in the position to take advantage of its competitor’s early start and possible failures and to learn from it, making its product more robust, competitive in price/quality or interesting to the consumer.
Being in a annually performance review meeting where a possible raise is on the table, an employee might try to get as much information from his supervisor before entering or answering the question about what he imagined for himself to be able to argument it thoroughly.
In an auction it might be easier to evaluate the situation and how to enter the betting when some opponents have already shown what they are ready to spend for an certain object.
In court or in dispute resolution it might be a good tactic to let the opponent start with their presentation of the case, to gather information from their argument, the errors in their reasoning and personal weaknesses they reveal.

But poker should be considered unfair in the aspect of position if not the “button” changes its owner on every hand. So the player who was the “small blind” before is the dealer now, as every position moves from right to left. Therefore every player come into the advantage of being in the position to play his hand regarding the information he can gather from the previous actions of his opponents. As the foremost dealer moves from an early position to a middle position and finally to an early position before being the dealer again, he has to adapt his play each time he retrieves less information from previous actions and may give more information to the players after him.

Being in an early position might have other advantages. With a strong hand it is possible to display strength by raising pre-flop and therefore provoke some folds from other strong hands in the middle positions for example. But the lack of information is clear, as the player in the early position cannot evaluate the other player’s hands.

Entering early in a new market has its advantages and the benefits might be big. But the possibility of failure is high and therefore a company is well-advised to start the challenge with thorough preparation and the right people at the steering wheel.
As other companies might wait to see how well or bad the competitor does in the new market, itself might try to gather information early and quickly be launching product tests, prototypes, market surveys, etc.
The same can work for the player in the early position, having a strong hand, he might test his opponent´s with a raise.

Changing positions from comfortable to ugly exposed is valuable learning for how to deal and behave in these situations.

Aggression
Changing situations not only occur due to the rotation of the dealer button, but also with every person at the table and his own character. Especially in Sit-and-Go Tournaments one is confronted with new players and characters on a regular basis and has to adapt his strategy regarding their type of play. Playing against a player who is more aggressive, out for a gamble or a bluff affords another strategy as playing against a tight and conservative one.
We regard patience as helpful in a situation like this. Taking the time to observe your opponents and to learn their type of game is important to make the right decisions when the right hand is available. How to play it then to get the maximum out of it depends well on the knowledge about your opponents and how to animate them to increase the pot size.

Patience will help additionally to await the rise and fall, the enter and leave of an aggressive player when it just does not match the own personality and strategy. One should not be seduced to call unreasonable raises and underestimating his opponents because of their loose play.
In “reality” one might be confronted with an aggressive opponent, spending his resources on an objective of similar interest or showing off his strength. In this situation it might be clever to retreat and stay back at first, to await if the opponent can only last the first meters and enter again when he fails and profit from it.

In a military strategy we see that one party waits until the other party shoots one´s wad by an aggressive tactic and overcomes the enemy with its saved resources and gathered intelligence.
But against an technological superior enemy it might be better to retreat completely and to give up one´s position. At poker this might just mean to switch for another table.

Multi-Level-Thinking
Gathering data at the poker table affords patience to accumulate enough, but concentration is necessary to do this effectively. Staying focused on the game and its opponents will help to restore past experiences and learning, to combine them with the actual situation at the table to conclude faster and better. The thinking must stay undisturbed and that is why we see many poker player´s stay quite and concentrated through out the game and again others trying to deflect the players around them with questions, jokes and direct provocation. To stay calm and focused requires some discipline.

In situations of conflict in our daily lives we see people being loud, rude or especially aggressive. But this is often just to hide their insecurity and lack of understanding due to lack of thought and analysis of the situation. People who stay calm and patient, who analyze the situation they find themselves in and, in a next step, analyze the situation of their opponents, may come to a solution for both sides which is not a waste of resources, lives or money. They do not overreact nor act thoughtless.

As the level of experience and skill of a poker player increases and the level of his opponents on the table also, he may find himself thinking more and more in different levels. Away from his own hand he starts to think about the hand of his opponent and how the opponent might see his own hand. And when taken a step further, the player starts to think what his opponent might think he thinks about the opponents hand. Here comes into play the image one has at the table. Or what the opponent thinks about what I think what his image is.

We just can imagine the situation between the politicians and diplomats in the era of the cold war and especially the Cuba crisis, when no direct communication with the other side was possible and only the actions and the reactions visible, how the strategists might have evaluated their options and next steps. What was the perceived strength of oneself in the other´s mind? How could the own action have a positive gain on the personal strategic position by provoking a reaction on the other side. How would my opponent react when I do this in reaction to his last action?

Patient observation, information collection, focused thinking and careful evaluation lead to thorough reasoning and good decision making. We might say that because of the execution of these qualities on both sides in the Cuba crisis has anticipated a full-scale war and has influenced future decision-making in situations of conflict in the Cold War.

Tells and Reads
We elaborated already on information gathering and the conclusions a player might draw from them without actually talking about from where he might take the information. Beside the image with whom a player tries to deceive his opponents, poker tells are source of information about other players. A wide range of poker tells is known and documented, which makes it difficult to conclude from when seen in an experienced opponent who just might use them to pretend a weakness where actually is strength.

Reading a person by its tells is widely know in our lives. In legal cases a lie detector is used to analyze whether a witness or a convict is telling the truth by recording his pulse and body temperature during an interrogation.
New detector technology at airports is tested which can analyze individuals in a cue by measuring their body temperature, heart beat, breath and body transpiration to conclude whether this person is nervous, has something to hide or bad intentions. They therefore might be selected for further investigation.

At the poker table we look at our opponents, especially the ones to the left and right of us to look out for one of these obvious tells like pulse, sweat and nervousness. Depending on what they read out of it, they adapt their strategy, decide whether to raise or fold.

But there are always two sides to it. One can never be 100% sure that what he reads is actually true or just what the opponent wants to tell about himself. We therefore carefully learn and fine tune our reading of people, avoid under-estimation and drawing false conclusions. Superficiality does not count. Every person has to be evaluated individually.

We often might jump to quick conclusions about new colleagues, new classmates or the new neighbour with his Italian sports car, just because of their appearance, talking and property. But as good poker players treat every newcomer at the table with respect and reservation one should take the same approach when meeting new people. A missed opportunity or a failure might have its cost in the future.

Chips and Bankroll Management
Leaving psychology we now have to think on some “hard” factors: chips and real money. To enter a poker game with real money one should already have the necessary bankroll to start with. To survive some bad hands and being sucked out by the blinds and the rake a player should enter with a bankroll that, depending on the game he wants to enter, be 300 to 500 times the big bets. For a 2$-4$ no limit game this would make a bankroll of minimum 1200$.

As we see some important issues about spending, long-term investment and risk-reward analysis come into play. When entering a poker game with real money we have to make the same considerations as when buying a new car for example. Without being rich, we cannot afford to buy a car with cash and in advance. We therefore make careful considerations and calculations for a financing. How high can we allow the rates per month to be? Would we spend less on other areas to save more money for the car? What happens when we have additional costs in other areas or we loose our job?

We would not buy a nice sports car without having the money to finance it and still make a decent living from our salary. So we should not enter a 10$-20$ game with a bankroll that will not let us survive for some time and cover some bad times. Focusing on the long term to play some good hands and get some real money for them we need to be able to stay in the game.

Every company who hires new personal has to make certain calculations and risk evaluation on the costs. Especially technology and research, companies might have to invest into a new employee for training, equipment and high wages in general. They therefore evaluate and calculate on their bankroll, make assumptions on how much they want to gain from that new employee in future earnings.

But as a company does not want to hire above their possibilities, they evenly do not want to hire below the necessary standard to keep up quality, quantity or image. The same counts for the poker player with a firm bankroll. With the experience from the smaller games he can start to play higher bets. Therefore the gains from winnings start to be higher and new strategies become reasonable. He might also think about a partly redemption to buy some necessary books or material to further improve his poker skill.

We imagine a freelance or small business which keeps parts of its earnings for higher education and necessary tools to improve its craft and services and therefore make higher earnings or be able to enter new markets in the future. Liquidity is important to survive economic downturns. Careful planning is necessary and risk-reward analysis is done to evaluate whether an investment is reasonable.

By comparing poker to all these “real life” situations one might ask the question why actually poker is so helpful in handling them. We found the following argument quite appealing:
In poker with every hand we are confronted with a new situation and again have to go through all the thinking before making a decision. Therefore the learning in poker is faster, as we repeat this circle every handful of minutes.
A real life situation might occur suddenly, for us reacting in some way and when its over, without really knowing what has happened and what to learn from it. We actually might be distracted by other situations in another context already.
In poker we stay in context and rapidly learn from the situations. Failures result in immediate punishment and because these situations and failures may occur in a short sequence, we have to learn and adapt fast.

When playing poker regularly someone can gain a lot of experience over the turn of a year for example. He will meet a lot of people with different characters, will go through hard times with bad hands, experience some bad beats and on the other hand some profitable hands. All the time he has to control his bankroll and his losses and focus on the long term to see how he is doing overall.
With the right perception of poker and its versatility and complexity we see it as a great learning experience for the thoughtful and open minded individual thinking in a long-term perspective.

To end with we want to confirm the beginning argument of Sklansky and Schoonmaker and conclude “poker is a great teacher”.

Is poker gambling or a game of skill

September 21st, 2009
by dimitri_c - stock.xchng

by dimitri_c - stock.xchng

In today’s essay we are confronted with the question whether poker is gambling or not. We want to make the statement that poker may be regarded as gambling if not played skillfully by the individual. Skill is derived from learning, an important factor of poker that is not present in games of pure chance.

To show that poker is not gambling but a game of skill, I would like to elaborate in the argument written by Howard Lederer. He identifies the main elements of a poker game and classifies whether they are influenced by chance or by skill.
We begin with the only chance element, the card deck. Each player gets dealt a certain amount of cards which make his “hand”. What type of cards he gets depends purely on chance. But the outcome of the game is not defined yet, although somebody may hold a strong or a weak hand, determined by a hierarchy of winning hands.
From this point on, each player is able to influence the other players by applying his skill in the decision making of the following actions: bet, call, check and fold. One may say now that these actions depend on the cards one holds in his hand. With a strong hand he might bet, a weak hand he might fold. But Lederer introduces some statistic data at this point that about 60% of all online poker hands played never reach the showdown, because all players but one have folded their cards. The important thing here is that no cards are ever shown to the other players and therefore their decision making depends on their own strategy, knowledge and mood.

But also taking into account the showdown between to players where one has the superior hand which was given to him by chance, Lederer asks to consider the following scenario: the player with the superior hand folds. As this is quite possible, the chance element has no influence at all on the outcome of the hand.

Texas Hold’em

by gun4hire - stock.xchng

by gun4hire - stock.xchng

An interesting factor is introduced by the variants of poker where community cards are used; we mention the famous Texas Hold’em here. The player’s hand is determined by two cards he gets dealt in the beginning and three community cards which are introduced after a round of possible bets, calls, checks and folds: flop, turn and river. Experience and observation help the poker player determine what the opponents hand might look like taking into consideration the one to three cards visible to him.
A player with a good hand might be interested to hide it from the other players be betting low or calling first, to keep his opponents in the game and let the invest more into the pot. This is a strategy which not at all contains any chance element. Actually, with three cards open to everybody each player who has not folded yet is able to more or less calculate what kind of hand his opponent might have, taking into account his hand and the behavior of the others. This is mathematics, calculating the probability.
But still, with the best hand in the field, a player might fold, due to the superior ability of the opponent to bluff. To convince your opponent that you actually have the better hand (if by probability still possible) is an enormous psychological skill and far away from the chance of cards.
Following this it also becomes clear that it is possible to intentionally loose a hand and intentionally make the wrong decisions. This also is far away from chance. In a game of roulette or bingo I have no influence on whether I win or loose. After the initial bet, no choice is left to the player or on the outcome.

Different approaches have been undertaken to proof that poker is a game of skill, also scientific ones. The problem seems to be that there is no universal measure to tell whether a game is more skill than chance and vice versa. Therefore some approaches collect a huge amount of data to prove by statistics that by fostering a certain factor like teaching strategy a player can be better at poker than someone with only the knowledge of the basic rules.

Protection from one’s self
For sure a person can loose a huge amount of money when playing poker and not taking it seriously and playing it with consciousness. But it is against the personal and the freedom of choice that the state tries to keep him away from playing poker by tagging it illegal (see Annie Duke talking to congress).
The same counts for religious and or ethical beliefs of the legislative, jurisdiction and executive powers, depending on their voters and community, that another group of people has to be constrained in their doing although not harming anybody. A poker player might be seen as not very productive and rather selfish, but that is the person who invests on the stock market as well (which actually is considered good although a comparable environment of decision making under uncertainty).

One might argument that the children have to be protected as their minds are not fully developed yet and not capable of calculating all the possible results of putting their money in something like poker.
But what happens at home is in the responsibility of the parents, home owner and elderly which have to control and watch out what their kids are doing online or in the bedroom. Additionally a consensus can be found by introducing certain tests of age before a person is allowed to play poker using real money whether entering a real casino or its online version.

Some other voices have blamed that the discussion about skill or chance is only taking place because of its difficult nature and the real reason why judges and politicians do not step out in favor of poker is the question of how to regulate and tax online poker and games in “unofficial”, private places. It is therefore easier to regulate it by only allowing it in public, controlled spaces and calling every other form or location as illegal.

Conclusion

by Whizzle - stock.xchng

by Whizzle - stock.xchng

We hope to have given some ideas and thoughts about the actual discussion whether poker is skill or gambling. By elaborating on certain aspects we have given arguments on why poker is a game of skill which to us seem obvious to any person involved in decision making.
Somebody might argue that by applying different skills to a game of poker just counts positively to ones chances to win, but the final outcome is still not sure. We would say in this case that this is describing actually everyday life: decision making in an environment of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore poker might be described as the real “game of life”.

Poker in an educational strategy

September 13th, 2009

by iqoqhost - stock.xchng

by iqoqhost - stock.xchng

The purpose of the essay of today is to introduce the reader to the problem and learning goal defined in the last peer session: to what extent would we be able to use poker in an educational strategy”. The author will try to discuss findings and ideas where to use poker in education. In an upcoming peer session the essay will be evaluated and a final conclusion might be drawn. We therefore encourage the interested reader in leaving comments and thoughts which can help in the final discussion.

Poker can be used in an educational strategy in middle school, college and higher education because it teaches mathematics in the area of probability and calculus in general. This game, though like other card games, advocates cognitive capabilities and has a real life connection in different areas. Games are engaging and result in interaction and communication between its participants. In comparison to rather “boring” passive listening, using a game like poker to teach can create a better learning experience and motivate students.

Poker as a learning tool in middle school mathematics helps teaching probability which contains factorial, permutation and binomial coefficient. The New York Times Learning Network provided interested educators with a lesson plan using poker to introduce 6th to 8th graders in probability. It starts with a general introduction into the card deck (amount of cards), the types of cards (colors, suites, numbers and faces) and their values. In the following the different probabilities for what may be the next card or the type of a hand are calculated. In addition to probability the students can learn about statistics by analyzing data of different outcomes of their probability tests for certain hands. When talking about probability, the students can also be introduced to the law of large numbers in the relation to the type of hand the player receives. In the long run this shows that the distribution of hands is equal for all players.

Beside the NYT article the author has found an abstract of an article called “The Development and Practice of Situated Cognition Teaching Activities in the Factors Unit — Using Poker Games as an Example” in the Chinese Journal of Science Education which states the following experience:

The results of this study showed that the teaching activities (poker games) demonstrated students’ positive attitudes toward learning, enhanced students’ concepts of factors, deepened students’ thinking, induced productive strategies in solving problems, and united students’ daily life experiences with school math.” – authors Kuo-Hsun HUANG & Shiang-tung LIU

Sadly the article is written in Chinese and could not be studied further by the author. It is mentioned for the interested and capable reader for additional study.

by harrykeely - stock.xchng

by harrykeely - stock.xchng

It must be acknowledged that the scenario in this case is quite narrow. Poker itself may be used in additional classes like history when talking about the origins of poker and its way over Canada to America and its growing popularity in the American civil war. The faces on the card deck also have their origin in historic personalities. So it may be an engaging starter for a further combined learning scenario, but a greater scenario with different areas of teaching regarding middle school is not seen as applicable by the author.

At this point it is also important to keep in mind that, when using poker as a teaching tool for middle school students it is still widely seen as related to chance, gambling and casinos, with a short step to gambling addiction. Therefore it is necessary and important to foster the awareness in the students for what poker is used in this class (teaching maths) and the “dark sides” which in the perception of many people are connected to poker. The above mentioned New York Times lesson plan advocates the discussion of this issue.

In higher education poker can be used to teach skills useful in business, law, negotiation and the social sciences. These skills not only contain a thorough understanding of mathematics as mentioned earlier, but also strategic thinking and cognitive capabilities.

Strategic thinking capability is an important skill in poker. Different types of poker, e.g. “Texas Hold’em” with its variations “Limit”, “Pot Limit” and “No Limit”, require different strategies. Different types of strategies are used to play different positions at the table. Being “the button” (buck, dealer) has an advantage regarding the availability of more information in comparison to the player after (to the left of) the big blind, who has to act first without any information regarding his opponents. In selecting the type of poker, “Texas Hold’em” may be the better choice in comparison to “Draw Poker” (“5 Card Draw”, no community cards), because the use of community cards enforces the player to take into account that they not only form his own but also his opponents hand. This means, because information is available to all opponents, the personal strategy has to take that into account by deriving the possible point of view of the opponent and his hand. Observation and changing the point of view, to observe from the opponents perspective, are the key aspects of solving the riddle of the three hats as explained by Charles Nesson and Andrew Woods in their talk at Google TechTalks.

In negotiation (business, law and social interaction) it can help being able to take the position of your competition, opponent and friends and to foster the understanding of their tactics, next steps and reasoning. Gathering information is of major importance while hiding the own intentions and strategy.

by JadeGordon - stock.xchng

by JadeGordon - stock.xchng

As poker is also a game of choice, it helps you to improve your decision making by learning from past choices. By canceling out emotions, a fact based learning helps improving future moves and to adapt the personal strategy. It is a learning by introspection, reviewing past decisions.
In business, strategies are created for a positive monetary outcome in a defined period of time. Executing the strategy and while doing so, collecting information about personal success and the behavior of the competition, help to evaluate and, if necessary, adapt the strategy. The hand and chips of the poker player are his form of assets, which money, employees and infrastructure are for the business manager. Both face risk and uncertainty when investing, so handling them proficiently is a key factor for success for both of them.

The poker table may be a good environment to learn and try these aspects. In a real world example, much more might be at stake as also employees and business partner depend on the managers decision making. Actually there are more scenarios in the business environment which might be interesting to evaluate under the learning of poker. This might be discussed deeper in future writings.

Card games in general are perceived as helping to develop and maintain cognitive capabilities. Regarding poker these may include attention and focus, memory, learning, planning and introspection between others. As introduced earlier, attention and focus over a long period of time are required by the poker player to make conclusions about the tactics and play of his opponents. The player memorizes past hands and games to draw conclusions in present decision making, additionally regarding the hand of his opponent when playing against him for a long time. By introspection the player can come up with certain “poker tells” or “bluffs” to provoke a distinct reaction in his opponent and derive further information from it.

What might be called emotional intelligence helps in interaction with colleagues and friends to have the patience to understand their point of view, what moves and motivates them. From that certain tactics might be developed to help out on problems, in disputes and conflict.

Conclusion
As we have seen, the idea of using poker as a learning tool is already evaluated and fostered from different parties. These parties have made findings that poker as a tool is useful and positive feedback has been collected from students and teachers.
The author sees a potential of poker in education in the mentioned scenarios and is curious to experiment on himself in the fields of cognition and strategic thinking. Some refresh in maths is also seen necessary and doing so with poker feels engaging.
Finally we leave it to the experienced and trained education professionals to evaluate the real use of poker as a learning tool in their classes but hope to have presented some aspects valuable of consideration.

Poker in academia and other fields – Initial ideas

September 9th, 2009

This initial essay describes ideas about the game poker and its use in academia and other areas of life. Therefore it is (for now) perceived as a game of skill, ignoring other aspects of chance and gambling.

poker_res

by johnnyberg - stock.xchng

Poker is a game. Games of any kind have been used for teaching and learning principles of life for centuries. Games have diversified and with technology also become more sophisticated. Normally quite complex issues, systems or aspects are simplified by a set of rules and an artificial environment with mostly closed borders and therefore no external, unexpected influences. Well known examples are “The game of life” or “Monopoly”. Although winning is not a question of skill, these games introduce the (younger) audience into the different aspects of life, money and investment (spending).

Games are also used to introduce people into a range of different areas of technology. Practical learning gives something to associate the theory with. Games and their physical assets help to bring theory into a real context, something that can be experienced visually and haptically.


Poker in academia, education, business and society

Games must have a connection to real world problems and one´s personal environment and life situation. In this sense, Poker contains a basic skill set necessary for our daily lives in general, e.g. regarding money and its usage, “investment”. Therefore we will present some aspects of poker as we see them and try to relate them to other areas.

Patience

Poker is not a game with a predefined end (a time constraint or a goal), but can be played for hours or days depending on the number of available players and strategies of each of them. Patience can be a valuable characteristic of a poker player regarding the cards he is dealt and the resulting odds. A large attention span is necessary to follow the behavior of your opponents.

Patience and attention are valuable assets regarding problem solving and social interaction and therefore interesting aspects in education and learning. In present time everybody is confronted with a huge amount of information through media and technology and therefore continuous distraction. Multi-tasking may be seen as the opposite of attention, concentration and focus.

Money (Assets)

The main assets in the poker game are cards and chips (money). Depending on the cards the poker player makes decisions about whether or not to take part in the actual round regarding his personal strategy and amount of chips available.

This kind of monetary decision is something managers and entrepreneurs have to deal with on a daily basis. Regarding their overall strategy of their business they make decisions based on available employees, infrastructure and money which they invest in expectation of a positive return.

Probability and Risk

Regarding his investment the poker player has to calculate the probability of actually winning the pot and the risk he is taking by giving money.

Financial investments generally involve risk and therefore the probabilities for failure and success are carefully calculated. The stock market is an example where calculations are made based on historic and present data, predictions and insider information to foresee the future and possible earnings.

Observation

The poker player does not concentrate on his cards and money only. An important aspect of playing poker is to get to know the other players at the table. This is done by careful observation of each of them, especially in situations of decision making and retrieving information (e.g. Flop, Turn and River).

by linsty - stock.xchng

by linsty - stock.xchng

Each company not only defines a strategy for itself in a certain market without careful observation of the competition and their movements. Changes in the market like innovation, pricing or need can have heavy consequences for a company ignoring or not adapting their strategy while the competition does.

Observations together with patience are valuable in communication and interaction between people (friends or colleagues and opponents) for better understanding of their behavior and reasoning.

Behavior

Poker tells, even in online games, are important hints, while observing your opponent, about what might be his actual hand and mood. This can help the poker player to adapt his strategy. But at the same time the poker player has to make himself clear that he also is observed and therefore works on his personal “image” and tries not to let through any emotion or movement that could tell his opponents about his mood or hand.

Self-perception and –awareness are important facts in everyday life when dealing with business partners, colleagues, friends and also the family. How am I perceived by others? How do I want to be perceived? How do I need to be to gain influence, be respected or get what I want? The “Poker Face” in business might relate to being able to hide real emotions or facts while negotiating with a client, the boss or colleagues.

Emotional capability or intelligence could resume the abilities mentioned in observation and behavior. Beside the “poker face” (hiding what is real) there may be the side of exploiting observed behavior, mood, and weaknesses of your opponent; or, when not dealing with an opponent but a friend or colleague, to be able to assist and support in a difficult situation.

Physical and mental condition

Tournament poker requires physical and mental condition to be able to play 14 hours a day, 8 days in a row (e.g. at WSOP).

A politician or diplomat may be attending sessions where difficult issues are being negotiated or when resolving a crisis. These situations may require him to stay focused, concentrated and personally present during an unusually large time span.

Although these situations are not new outside of poker, the experience and techniques developed by the poker player can be collected and compared to the measurements in other environments and circumstances.

Fitness helps avoiding physical pain due to long periods of sitting on a chair. The correct diet and eating habit may prevent reduced concentration capability due to heavy digestion and avoidance of distinct types of food due to known allergic reactions that have an effect on body and mind.


A lot of the mentioned skills are not necessarily a part of Poker itself, but may be learned in different ways, experiences and other theoretical endeavors like philosophy.

But poker is a game. It is not theoretical, it’s quite practical. You do not read about something and then try to find some practical use for it, but you learn it while practicing in a closed “learning” environment, the poker table, where you are also free to try things out.